Modeling the Survival Benefits of HIV Treatment in the U.S.

The past 15 years have brought major advances in HIV treatment in the U.S. How many years of life have been saved as result? To answer this question, a research group used its widely published model of HIV/AIDS natural history (N Engl J Med 2001; 344:824) incorporating nationally representative surveillance data, as well as efficacy data on different treatment regimens during six treatment eras from 1989 through 2003. The eras were defined according to when major interventions became the standard of HIV care; two additional eras of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) were also included. The modelers assumed that “patients received the recommended standards of care in the year of their diagnosis.”

Using length of survival before…