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Higher plasma viral load has been linked to increased risk for HIV disease progression in population studies, but the degree to which plasma viral load explains CD4-cell loss for individual patients is unknown. Now, in a multi-institutional study involving two cohorts of treatment-naive, chronically HIV-infected patients (total, 2801 patients), researchers have calculated the proportion of variability in CD4-cell–loss rate predicted by baseline plasma viral load. All participants had at least 6 months of follow-up, and at least one viral load and two CD4-cell–count measurements (with the initial measurements taken at baseline). Results obtained with the first cohort were validated by analysis of data from a second cohort — participants in t…