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The mortality rate in patients with severe pancreatitis is about 25%, and death is biphasic, usually occurring within the first few days or after several weeks. Previous prognostic models were developed based on expert consensus or small populations, and most are not applicable to the acute setting. These authors sought to develop a new prognostic model based on physiologic and laboratory parameters collected within the first 24 hours after intensive care unit (ICU) admission.
They retrospectively analyzed data from a large, prospectively collected database for 2462 patients admitted with severe acute pancreatitis to 159 ICUs in the U.K. during 8 years. The overall hospital mortality rate was 42%. Mortality among emergency department patient…