Poor Countries Expected to Bear Brunt of Influenza Pandemic

Of the 62 million excess deaths projected to occur in an influenza pandemic, 96% would be in the developing world.

Estimates of deaths from the 1918–1920 pandemic have ranged from 20 to 100 million. Now, researchers have systematically analyzed data from that pandemic to develop estimates of global mortality from a severe contemporary influenza pandemic.

The investigators identified high-quality vital registration data for 1915 to 1923 from populations around the world and estimated influenza deaths by using excess all-cause mortality (calculated by comparing annual death rates in a 3-year pandemic window with those in pre- and post-pandemic years). Data were sufficient to allow calculation of excess mortality for 27 countries, 24 U.S. states, and nine Indian provinces. Although the excess-mortality rate averaged 1.06% in countrywide analyses, it varied …

Reviewing Author

Mary E. Wilson, MD

Poor Countries Expected to Bear Brunt of Influenza Pandemic

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Reviewing Author