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A 2004 prediction by the World Health Organization that global diabetes prevalence would rise 60% from 1995 levels to reach 6.4% by 2030 was based on a conservative assumption that obesity rates would remain constant. Investigators tested this prediction by examining a validated, longitudinal, population-based registry of Ontario adults with diagnosed diabetes.
Between 1995 and 2005, crude diabetes prevalence in the province increased 81.6%, from 4.9% to 8.9%. After adjustments for age and sex, the relative increase in prevalence was 69% overall, 94% in people 20 to 49 years old, and 62% in people 50 or older. When the sexes were considered separately, the greatest relative increase in prevalence (108%) occurred in women younger than 50. Lik…