Modeling Sound Prognostic Decisions Among BRCA Mutation Carriers

Computer simulation can estimate survival advantages associated with prophylactic surgeries and nonsurgical strategies.

More than 300,000 U.S. women carry BRCA mutations, with an attendant 5- to 20-fold increased risk for breast and ovarian cancer. Investigators developed a model to estimate survival probabilities among mutation carriers who undergo no intervention, breast screening with annual mammograms plus magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), prophylactic mastectomy (PM), prophylactic salpingo-oophorectomy (PO), or both surgeries.

Compared with no intervention, the single most effective intervention in BRCA1 carriers was PO at age 40, which led to a survival advantage (from 53% to 68%) by age 70. The combination of PO and PM at age 40 was the most effective overall strategy, resulting in survival gains at age 70 of 24% and 11% in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers, re…

Reviewing Author

Andrew M. Kaunitz, MD

Disclosures

RoyaltiesUpToDate

Grant/Research SupportMerck, Mithra, Medicines360

Editorial BoardsContraception; Menopause; Contraceptive Technology Update; OBG Management; Medscape OB/GYN & Women’s Health

Andrew M. Kaunitz, MD

Disclosures

RoyaltiesUpToDate

Grant/Research SupportMerck, Mithra, Medicines360

Editorial BoardsContraception; Menopause; Contraceptive Technology Update; OBG Management; Medscape OB/GYN & Women’s Health

Modeling Sound Prognostic Decisions Among BRCA Mutation Carriers

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Reviewing Author