Mathematical modeling of the HIV epidemic in South Africa indicates that a combined ART and PrEP strategy might prevent more than 1.6 million HIV infections during 10 years, with a projected drug-resistance prevalence of 8.2%.
The same antiretroviral drugs are used for both HIV prevention and treatment, raising concerns about drug resistance. Using a mathematical model to simulate outcomes for antiretroviral therapy (ART) alone, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) alone, and combined ART and PrEP, researchers assessed the potential effects of these strategies on HIV transmission and drug resistance in South Africa.
During 10 years, ART alone (implemented at CD4 counts <200 cells/mm3) was projected to prevent 920,000 HIV infections (20% reduction), with a resistance prevalence of 6.6% (4.2% acquired resistance and 2.4% transmitted resistance). PrEP alone was projected to prevent 960,000 HIV infections (21% reduction), with a resistance prevalence of about 0.5%. Combined…
Reviewing Author
DisclosuresConsultant/Advisory BoardUNAIDS; WHO; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Population Council
Grant/Research SupportNIH; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; Tides Foundation/MAC AIDS Fund; USAID; South African National Research Foundation; European Union; South African Medical Research Council
Editorial BoardsNew England Journal of Medicine; AIDS Reviews; AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses; mBio; Indian Journal of Medical Research; JAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
DisclosuresConsultant/Advisory BoardUNAIDS; WHO; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Population Council
Grant/Research SupportNIH; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; Tides Foundation/MAC AIDS Fund; USAID; South African National Research Foundation; European Union; South African Medical Research Council
Editorial BoardsNew England Journal of Medicine; AIDS Reviews; AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses; mBio; Indian Journal of Medical Research; JAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes