Pandemic Potential of the MERS-CoV

Analysis of MERS-CoV cases suggests that the virus is less likely than the SARS-CoV to cause a pandemic.

The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has killed >50% of those with documented infection, but how likely is this pathogen to spread widely? To assess the pandemic potential of the virus, investigators in France retrieved data from 55 confirmed and 7 probable MERS-CoV cases and used Bayesian analysis to estimate the basic reproductive number (R₀) — the number of infections caused by one infected individual in a susceptible population. A R₀ value >1 suggests that cases could increase exponentially.

Using transmission trees, the researchers defined cases related to each index case of MERS-CoV infection. Under two different scenarios of who infected whom in recent illness clusters, they estimated that the R₀ for the MERS-Co…

Reviewing Author

Mary E. Wilson, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory BoardOneHealthTrust (formerly Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy); Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin

RoyaltiesUpToDate

Editorial BoardsJournal of Travel Medicine

Mary E. Wilson, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory BoardOneHealthTrust (formerly Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy); Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin

RoyaltiesUpToDate

Editorial BoardsJournal of Travel Medicine

Pandemic Potential of the MERS-CoV

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Reviewing Author