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When a pulmonary nodule is discovered during computed tomography (CT) screening for lung cancer, the next question is “What is the probability that the nodule is malignant?” Now, researchers have created a model to address that question. The model is derived from a Canadian CT screening study that included 2500 current and former smokers (age range, 50–75) whose 3-year lung cancer risk was estimated to be ≥2%. Nearly 1900 participants had one or more noncalcified lung nodules for which they underwent serial CT scanning and biopsy or surgical resection during median follow-up of 3 years (range, 2–4 years).
Lung cancer was diagnosed in 102 of the participants with nodules (5.5%). The most statistically significant predictors of lung cancer wer…