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Estimates of the contribution of acute HIV infection to overall HIV transmissions vary from <5% to >50%. Many such estimates were based on data from the retrospective Rakai cohort (serodiscordant heterosexual couples in Uganda involved in a study evaluating HIV transmission risk), with the most commonly quoted increased risk for transmission during acute infection ranging from 30 to 70 excess-hazard months (i.e., extra months of infectivity contributed by the acute phase's elevated infectivity, based on the average infectiousness of HIV over a 10-year, untreated period).
Now, researchers have reexamined the Rakai data using two new approaches: 1) a couples transmission–adjusted analysis accounting for bias from the manner in which the data w…