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Zika virus (ZIKV) caused a large outbreak in 2013–14 in French Polynesia, where it was estimated to infect 66% of the general population. In a retrospective study, investigators estimated the probability of ZIKV infection during each week of the epidemic and identified all cases of microcephaly from September 2013 to July 2015. They developed a simple model to assess periods for risk during pregnancy and to estimate the associated risk for microcephaly.
Using a strict and standardized definition, the researchers identified eight cases of microcephaly during the study period, seven of which occurred during a 4-month period in 2014. Other data sets used in the analysis were the number of weekly consultations for suspected ZIKV infections, ZIKV…