Predicting the Next Austin, Indiana: County-Level Vulnerability Assessment for Outbreaks of HIV and HCV

An analysis of county-level risk factors for infection among persons who inject drugs identified six indicators and highlighted 220 counties in 26 states that are most at risk for future outbreaks.

The recent HIV and hepatitis C (HCV) outbreak in a rural U.S. county in Indiana — in which 181 individuals who injected prescription opioids were diagnosed with HIV (92% coinfected with HCV) out of a population of about 24,000 — is likely not to remain unique, as the U.S. is experiencing an epidemic of opioid addiction. To help in predicting where future outbreaks may occur, investigators from the CDC analyzed variables highly associated with unsterile injection drug use (IDU), using the rate of confirmed acute HCV infection as the best proxy to unsterile IDU. The researchers assessed these variables by U.S. county to calculate a vulnerability score. Prevalence of HIV infection in each county and nearby was used to calculate “HIV proximity.…

Reviewing Author

Carlos del Rio, MD

Disclosures

Grant/Research SupportNIH/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; NIH/National Institute on Drug Abuse

Editorial BoardsJAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes; Vaccines

Leadership Positions in Professional SocietiesInternational Antiviral Society–USA (Board of Directors); Infectious Diseases Society of America (Past President)

Carlos del Rio, MD

Disclosures

Grant/Research SupportNIH/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; NIH/National Institute on Drug Abuse

Editorial BoardsJAIDS: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes; Vaccines

Leadership Positions in Professional SocietiesInternational Antiviral Society–USA (Board of Directors); Infectious Diseases Society of America (Past President)

Predicting the Next Austin, Indiana: County-Level Vulnerability Assessment for Outbreaks of HIV and HCV

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Reviewing Author