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Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces viral load in genital secretions and may therefore reduce the likelihood of sexual HIV transmission. However, the effects of ART on transmission risk are complex and may change during the course of an individual’s infection.
Investigators used a previously published computer simulation model to estimate the likelihood of HIV transmission among two hypothetical cohorts of men who have sex with men (MSM). One cohort was assumed to be receiving ART according to current treatment guidelines, whereas the other cohort was assumed to remain untreated. Additional assumptions about patterns of sexual risk behavior, the efficacy of ART, and the probability of transmission during various stages of infection were dra…