HIV Incidence in the U.S.: New Methods Result in a Higher Estimate

For nearly 20 years, the news about HIV incidence in the U.S. has been the same: The CDC has consistently reported that about 40,000 new HIV infections occur each year, mostly in men who have sex with men (MSM) and at higher rates among blacks and Hispanics than among whites. This year, part of that story changed dramatically, and part remained the same. In any case, the news was rarely good.

For the first time, CDC officials were able to directly measure the rate of new infections in parts of the U.S., using assays that differentiate recent infections from long-standing ones. They then employed a host of complicated statistical methods to estimate incidence for the entire country. What they found is that the number of new infections has ind…