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Decision analysis can help in determining a medical management strategy when clinical studies do not provide sufficient guidance. This technique involves constructing a decision tree based on clinical outcomes and determining the probability of each outcome based on data from the medical literature. Until now, no study has been published comparing the conclusions of decision analyses with the results of clinical trials.
A PubMed search revealed 40 infectious diseases–related decision-analysis papers published from January 1990 through May 2005. Sixteen papers covering a total of 13 infectious-diseases topics could be matched to subsequent clinical studies (total, 23 studies). In 12 of the 16 instances, the conclusions of the decision-analysi…