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The epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in Africa is now inextricably linked with that of HIV disease. Efforts to treat HIV-infected individuals with antiretroviral therapy (ART) could therefore have an effect on TB incidence.
Investigators recently fitted a mathematical model to trend data on HIV prevalence and TB notification rates in nine sub-Saharan African countries to explore the effect of various HIV treatment strategies on TB incidence between now and 2050. The model incorporated numerous parameters, including the rate of HIV progression for people not on ART, the estimated rates of ART treatment failure, and the rates at which people on (or not on) ART develop — and recover from — TB at different stages of HIV disease.
The relative eff…