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The emergence of annual winter influenza A outbreaks in temperate climates has been ascribed to the emergence of new strains arising from reservoirs that persist and evolve on a year-round basis in tropical and subtropical regions of East and Southeast Asia. However, a new mathematical modeling analysis does not bear out this hypothesis.
Researchers analyzed the evolution and migration dynamics of the influenza A H3N2 virus between 2003 and 2006, using 1275 viral sequences from isolates collected in seven geographic regions (Europe, New York State, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Southeast Asia).
As expected, viruses isolated from the same region in the same year showed high genetic relatedness. In temperate regions, during each…