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In 2008, the WHO World Health Assembly endorsed a target of 90% reduction in measles mortality between 2000 and 2010. Investigators recently developed a model to estimate progress in reaching this goal.
For the 65 countries with adequate vital registration data, the investigators used the reported number of measles deaths; for the 128 remaining countries, they relied on estimated annual measles incidence and age-specific and country-specific measles case-fatality ratios (CFRs) to calculate the number of deaths. They constructed a state-space model to describe the trend in measles cases over time as a function of births, deaths, measles transmission, and vaccination levels.
The model and surveillance data suggested that, from 2000 to 2010, est…