Risk Prediction for Acute Upper GI Hemorrhage

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) results in 250,000 to 300,000 hospitalizations annually in the U.S., but several studies have shown that many AUGIB patients have low risk for rebleeding and could be treated as outpatients. Multiple risk-prediction scales have been developed, but few have been validated prospectively, and none has been applied in general clinical practice.

Investigators at three Veterans Affairs hospitals prospectively collected data on 391 patients who were admitted with diagnoses of AUGIB. Clinical and endoscopic data were collected using standard forms at the time of admission, throughout the hospital stay, and for 30 days postdischarge. The researchers identified predictors of two adverse outcomes: GI bleedi…