Predicting Early Mortality After Acute Variceal Hemorrhage

A simple model based on Child-Pugh score, creatinine level, and bacterial infection status allowed accurate prediction of 6-week mortality.

Identifying prognostic variables related to early mortality in patients with acute variceal hemorrhage is vital, considering that after episodes of variceal bleeding, mortality rates rise sharply for 6 weeks before leveling off. However, most models for predicting mortality in patients with variceal hemorrhage are difficult to use in a clinical setting.

To address this issue, investigators conducted a retrospective analysis of mortality involving 267 consecutive patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding who were admitted to a single center in Spain from 2001 through 2008. Using both logistic regression and CART (classification and regression tree) analyses, the researchers developed simple models for predicting 6-week mortality based …

Reviewing Author

Atif Zaman, MD, MPH

Disclosures

Nothing to disclose

Atif Zaman, MD, MPH

Disclosures

Nothing to disclose