Can We Predict Who Will Develop Alzheimer Disease?

Older people who develop mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are understandably concerned that it will progress to Alzheimer disease, but only 8% to 15% per year do develop AD, and usually within 3 years. In a prospective, 5-year, follow-up study of 148 outpatients with MCI, researchers determined the incremental effects on prediction accuracy of combining eight variables that have been thought to predict progression to AD.

Patients underwent baseline psychiatric and neurologic exams (including the Mini Mental State Exam [MMSE]), annual neuropsychological test batteries, apolipoprotein E (ApoE) genotyping, brain MRI, the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT; self-administered scratch-and-sniff test), and the Pfeiffer Funct…