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Optic neuritis is a common first manifestation of multiple sclerosis (MS). In the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial, researchers compared corticosteroids and placebo in patients with acute optic neuritis; initial results were published in 1992 (JW Feb 28 1992). Now, the same researchers report long-term risk for developing MS among 389 patients from the original trial. Complete 15-year follow-up data were available for 77% of participants.
The cumulative 15-year probability of developing MS — defined as a clinically evident second new neurologic deficit attributable to demyelination, excluding optic neuritis — was exactly 50%. The probability was significantly lower among patients whose initial brain magnetic resonance images showed no lesions …