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Recently, I encountered a 47-year-old woman with chronic headaches. Several months previously, at another institution, she had undergone magnetic resonance imaging that showed multiple areas of white-matter abnormality without obvious cause (Figure). She had no neurological findings on physical examination and had no history of focal neurological symptoms. What is the probability that she will develop multiple sclerosis (MS)? A study from the Multiple Sclerosis Center at the University of California, San Francisco, addresses this question.
Researchers identified 44 patients (median age, 39; 41 women) with incidentally discovered white-matter MRI abnormalities suggestive of MS but with no histories or physical-exam findings to establish that …