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Risk scores could help physicians identify people at excess risk for diabetes who might benefit from preventive interventions. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 12,729 U.S. adults (age range, 45–64) who were followed for as long as 10 years, investigators developed and tested risk scores for predicting incident diabetes. Two scores (basic and enhanced) were derived and validated in different subjects drawn from the total sample.
The basic score assigned risk points for parental history of diabetes, hypertension, black race, older age (≥55), ever smoking, large waist circumference, short stature, rapid resting pulse, and overweight. This score had a sensitivity of 69% and a specificity of 64% at an optimized cutoff value. The …