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Screening for prostate and breast cancers has been promoted heavily in the U.S., and annual screening costs are US$20 billion for just these two cancers. Lifetime diagnoses of prostate cancer were made in 1 of 11 white men in 1980; in 2009, the risk is 1 in 6. For breast cancer, risks were 1 in 12 in 1980 and 1 in 8 in 2009. Authors of a highly publicized review now challenge the value of such intensive screening.
If screening accurately identifies cancer at an early treatable stage, the incidence of localized cancer should increase after screening is implemented, and the incidence of metastatic cancer should decline. Because this pattern has occurred for neither breast nor prostate cancer, screening simply might identify low-risk non–life-t…