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Given the recent focus on reducing unplanned hospital readmissions, a logical question is whether such readmissions are predictable. In this prospective study, Canadian researchers gathered data on 4800 patients just before discharge from 11 Ontario hospitals. Using data from 2400 patients, the researchers performed a multivariable analysis to derive an index that predicted 30-day hospital readmission or death. The index was then validated in the other 2400 patients.
The overall 30-day incidence of death or unplanned readmission was 8% (91% of these events were readmissions). Four variables from the initial hospitalization independently predicted this outcome — longer length of stay, emergent (vs. elective) admission, increasing Charlson com…