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Since the earliest days of oncology practice, clinicians have used prognostic markers to characterize the natural history of tumors, to predict risk for recurrence, and to aid in response assessment of neoplasms. Despite widespread use of prognostic markers, published guidelines provide a sobering reminder of their limited value (J Clin Oncol 2001; 19:1865).
Researchers identified 20 meta-analyses that encompassed 331 prognostic-marker studies published from 1987 through 2005. Each original study was assigned a score based on “quality measures.” These measures included study design and methodology (e.g., whether the trial was prospective, whether evaluation of the marker was blinded to patient outcome, whether rationales were provided for st…