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The effects of human papillomavirus vaccination on cervical cancer rates will not be known for many years. In the absence of long-term study results, investigators used epidemiologic and demographic data to model outcomes and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination. Benefits were expressed in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Models were based on the assumption that vaccination confers lifelong immunity and that HPV-16 and HPV-18 will not be replaced over time by other oncogenic HPV types. The benefits of preventing genital warts, noncervical cancers, and juvenile respiratory papillomatosis also were considered.
The cost-effectiveness ratio for immunization of 12-year-old girls was US$43,600 per QALY g…