COVID-19: Pandemic's Summer Course / Critical Illness in NYC / Transmission at Church Events / Acute MI Admissions

By Amy Orciari Herman

Edited by David G. Fairchild, MD, MPH, and Lorenzo Di Francesco, MD, FACP, FHM

Check out the latest news on novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19):

Pandemic in the summer: The warmth and humidity of the summer months may not offer substantial relief from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a modeling study in Science. Researchers used data on two coronaviruses closely related to SARS-CoV-2 to predict the course of the pandemic over the coming months. They found that "while variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size." Instead, the population's level of immunity has a much greater influence on an outbreak's trajectory. The researchers conclude that "both tropical and temperate locations should prepare for severe outbreaks of [COVID-19] and that summertime temperatures will not effectively limit the spread" of the infection.

Critical illness in NYC: Of 1150 adults admitted to two New York City hospitals with confirmed COVID-19 between early March and April, 22% were critically ill with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. By the end of April, roughly 40% of the critically ill patients had died, and another 37% were still hospitalized (median length of stay, 33 days). After multivariable adjustment, the strongest predictor of in-hospital mortality was chronic pulmonary disease, followed by chronic cardiovascular disease, older age, and higher concentrations of interleukin-6 and D-dimer at admission. Of note, black and Hispanic patients presented later after symptom onset than did white patients.

Disease transmission at church events: At least 38% of 92 people who attended events at an Arkansas church in early March developed laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, according to findings in MMWR. The pastor and his wife, who attended the events while asymptomatic, were the first to test positive and are believed to be the index cases. Seven of the patients were hospitalized, and three died. Notably, not all 92 attendees were tested for SARS-CoV-2; when the analysis was limited to the 45 who were tested, 78% tested positive. An additional 26 people in the community also developed COVID-19 believed to be linked to the church.

MI hospitalizations down: Weekly rates of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction fell by as much as 48% during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an analysis of records from a large California health system published by the New England Journal of Medicine. In particular, from Jan. 1 through Mar. 3, 2020, the rate was 4.1 per 100,000 person-weeks — but was only 2.1 per 100,000 from Apr. 8 to 14.