U.S. Saw Over 520,000 Excess Deaths in 2020, Most from COVID-19

By Amy Orciari Herman

Edited by Susan Sadoughi, MD, and André Sofair, MD, MPH

The U.S. experienced over 520,000 more deaths than expected from March through December 2020, according to an analysis in JAMA. Some 72% of those deaths were attributed to COVID-19.

Researchers used U.S. mortality data from 2014 to 2019 to predict expected deaths in 2020, then compared those predictions with the actual deaths observed from March through December. Overall, there were 2.8 million deaths, 23% more than expected. The excess death rate was higher among Black people than among white or Latino.

At the end of 2020, excess deaths were increasing in all regions studied. The following 10 states had the highest excess death rate: Mississippi (260 excess deaths per 100,000), New Jersey, New York, Arizona, Alabama, Louisiana, South Dakota, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Ohio (191 per 100,000).

In addition to the COVID-19 deaths, increases in deaths due to heart disease, Alzheimer's/dementia, and diabetes were observed at different points throughout the year. The researchers speculate that these "could reflect either immediate or delayed mortality from undocumented COVID-19 infection, or non–COVID-19 deaths secondary to the pandemic, such as from delayed care or behavioral health crises."