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Despite recent improvements in its management, acute variceal hemorrhage (VH) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Several prognostic models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh, have been shown to predict poor outcomes. However, they are seldom used, partly because of a lack of external validation.
The aims of the current study were to evaluate the performance of a few recently described prognostic models for VH (MELD, Child-Pugh, Augustin, and D'Amico), identify the best performing model in a prospective cohort of patients, calibrate this model to maximize performance, and validate the new model in two external cohorts. The initial cohort comprised 178 patients with cirrhosis and VH who …