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The emergence of new influenza strains with high case-fatality rates and the bioengineering of strains with increased potential for person-to-person spread have increased concern about our preparedness for an influenza pandemic.
During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, there was a 9-month lag in instituting mass vaccination. Now, researchers have created a mathematical model to assess the value of earlier vaccination. The model assumed a population of 8.3 million people with no immunity from prior exposure to the influenza A (H7N9) strain; an urban setting resembling New York City; a 30% vaccination rate; 1000 people infected at the start of the pandemic, of whom 67% were symptomatic and 50% were isolated; a reproductive number (the numb…