Brazil: Identifying World Cup Cities at Highest Risk for Dengue

A predictive model based on real-time seasonal climate forecasts and dengue incidence data can provide early warnings to World Cup cities at highest risk for outbreaks.

The soccer World Cup, to be held in 12 Brazilian cities in June and July 2014, is expected to attract more than a million spectators. Dengue fever is endemic in Brazil; 1.4 million cases were reported in 2013. Now, researchers have developed a spatiotemporal model to forecast dengue risk during the tournament.

Using historical seasonal climate data and dengue incidence figures, the researchers formulated a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian model to model dengue cases from 2000 to 2013 in 553 microregions of Brazil. To forecast dengue risk for June 2014, they incorporated real-time seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts (March–May, 2014) from multiple international sources and dengue case data for February 2014 from the Brazilian…

Reviewing Author

Mary E. Wilson, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory BoardOneHealthTrust (formerly Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy); Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin

RoyaltiesUpToDate

Editorial BoardsJournal of Travel Medicine

Mary E. Wilson, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory BoardOneHealthTrust (formerly Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy); Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin

RoyaltiesUpToDate

Editorial BoardsJournal of Travel Medicine

Brazil: Identifying World Cup Cities at Highest Risk for Dengue

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Reviewing Author