Model Predicts Burden of Childhood TB

The predicted burden of pediatric tuberculosis is substantially greater than has been suggested by previous estimates.

Diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) in children is hampered by low bacillary load and difficulty in collecting sputum; even if diagnosed, cases are often not recorded or reported. Now, investigators have developed a mechanistic mathematical model to estimate the number of pediatric cases in 22 countries that account for 80% of the global TB burden.

WHO TB prevalence data from 2010 were used to estimate the force of infection; country-specific demographic data were used to determine the number of children at risk. Evidence about age-related progression risks, as well as data on bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination, geographic latitude, and HIV infection, was also incorporated.

The model predicted that in 2010, approximately 7.6 million children aged…

Reviewing Author

Mary E. Wilson, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory BoardOneHealthTrust (formerly Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy); Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin

RoyaltiesUpToDate

Editorial BoardsJournal of Travel Medicine

Mary E. Wilson, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory BoardOneHealthTrust (formerly Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy); Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin

RoyaltiesUpToDate

Editorial BoardsJournal of Travel Medicine

Model Predicts Burden of Childhood TB

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Reviewing Author