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The current Ebola outbreak in three West African countries is unprecedented in both the number of people infected and the case fatality rate. Without a vaccine or a curative drug, hopes for arresting the epidemic rest on hygiene and isolation measures. To quantify what might be necessary for effective control, researchers developed a stochastic model based on incidence, case fatality rates, and contact tracing from the early days of this outbreak in Liberia, as well as viral load data for survivors and nonsurvivors of an outbreak in Uganda in 2000–2001.
The resulting assumptions for the model were that Ebola transmission increases with viral load. For survivors, the load is greatest 4 days after symptom onset. For nonsurvivors, it is greates…