Refining the Estimated Progression Rate of Barrett Esophagus to EAC

In a modeling analysis, risk for progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma — at least for the 5 years after BE diagnosis — was 0.19%, similar to previous population-based study findings.

Uncertainty in the rate of progression of Barrett esophagus (BE) to dysplasia or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) continues to fuel controversy surrounding cost-effectiveness of surveillance and endoscopic ablation therapies.

In the current study, investigators attempted to reconcile differences in BE-to-EAC progression rates reported in population-based studies and prospective cohort studies. They used simulation modeling, calibrating the model to alternately reflect surveillance conditions of population-based versus prospective studies, such as surveillance rates and surveillance intervals. They assumed a mean age at BE diagnosis of 65 years for the cohort simulation and followed patients until EAC, death, or end of follow-up. Clinical EAC …

Reviewing Author

David A. Johnson, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory boardMedscape/WebMD; Pfizer; CRH Medical Corporation; Aries

EquityCRH Medical Corporation

Editorial boardsMedscape Gastroenterology

Leadership positions in professional societiesAmerican College of Gastroenterology Research Institute Board of Directors