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The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommended against prostate cancer screening with prostate specific antigen (PSA) in men 75 years and older in 2008, and then extended that recommendation to all men in 2012 (NEJM JW Gen Med Jul 1 2012 and Ann Intern Med 2012; 157:120). In two studies, researchers looked at the effect of those recommendations on screening and cancer diagnosis.
In the first study, investigators used national health behavior and cancer surveillance databases to compare screening rates and prostate cancer diagnoses for 2005, 2008, 2010, and 2013. In adjusted analyses, screening rates increased for both middle-aged (age range, 50–74) and older (age, ≥75) men from 2005 to 2008; screening rates declined from 2008 to 2013. The absolute rates of screening in 2013 for the younger and older subgroups were 30% and 36%, respectively. Annual prostate cancer incidence increased from 2005 to 2007 and then declined steadily from 593 cases per 100,000 men in 2007 to 416 per 100,000 in 2012.
In the second study, the same national health behavior database was used to identify roughly 5000 middle-aged and older men in each study year (2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013). PSA screening rates were 34% in 2000 and 2005, 36% in 2010, and 31% in 2013. The 2013 decline was driven by lower screening rates in men younger than 75, particularly those younger than 55 (23% in 2010 vs. 18% in 2013) and those who were 60 to 64 (45% in 2010 vs. 35% in 2013).
Jemal A et al. Prostate cancer incidence and PSA testing patterns in relation to USPSTF screening recommendations. JAMA 2015 Nov 17; 314:2054. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2015.14905)
Sammon JD et al. Prostate-specific antigen screening after 2012 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendations. JAMA 2015 Nov 17; 314:2077. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2015.7273)
Penson DF.The pendulum of prostate cancer screening. JAMA 2015 Nov 17; 314:2031. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2015.13775)
Barry MJ and Nelson JB.Patients present with more advanced prostate cancer since the USPSTF screening recommendations. J Urol 2015 Dec; 194:1534. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.juro.2015.09.033)
Comment
An editorialist used data from a European screening study (NEJM JW Gen Med Sep 15 2014 and Lancet 2014 Aug 7; [e-pub]) to calculate that about 1200 additional U.S. men might die annually of prostate cancer because of the lower screening rate, but he acknowledges that such a calculation depends on many assumptions. Calculating how much morbidity and mortality is prevented by avoiding unnecessary follow-up and treatment of indolent cancers is much more difficult, but equally important. These unresolvable controversies continue to perplex both patients and physicians.