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Investigators performed prospective, population-based cohort studies of recruited participants in separate cohorts in the Netherlands: 7983 participants older than 55 recruited from 1989 to 1993; 3011 added from 2000 to 2001; and 3932 subjects added from 2006 to 2008, for a total of 14,926. Subject data were analyzed against a nationwide data base.
Of 1077 participants who developed a first basal cell carcinoma (BCC) during the study period, 293 developed a second a median of 3 years later. The strongest predictor of developing a subsequent BCC was having more than one BCC at initial diagnosis (hazard ratio, 2.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.0–3.4; P<0.001). Other strong predictors were lower age at first BCC (HR, 1.6; CI, 1.3–2.0; P<0.001) an…