Predicting Short-Term Mortality in Older Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease

Older patients with end-stage renal disease are more likely than younger patients to develop complications during hemodialysis. In this study of the 2200 older adults (age, ≥65; mean age, 75) living in Alberta, Canada, who began maintenance hemodialysis during a recent 9-year period, researchers derived and validated a 6-month mortality prediction tool.

Overall, 17% of patients died within 6 months after starting dialysis. Seven variables independently predicted 6-month mortality: age ≥80, estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥10 mL/minute/1.73m² when dialysis was initiated, atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, metastatic cancer, lymphoma, and hospitalization within the past 6 months. Points were assigned to each predictor, weighte…