Stratifying Regions in Africa by Potential to Generate Pandemics of Viral Hemorrhagic Fever

In a model, epidemic potential varied greatly by location; most districts of Central African Republic, Chad, Somalia, and South Sudan were highly vulnerable.

Identifying areas at highest risk for outbreaks of viral hemorrhagic fevers caused by Ebola, Crimean–Congo, Lassa, and Marburg viruses might allow better pandemic preparedness. Investigators quantified three stages that reflect vulnerability to hemorrhagic fever epidemics. Stage one includes index case suitability, which takes into account environmental suitability, risk for spillover events from zoonotic hosts or vectors, and likely location of clinical case evaluation. Stage two measures likelihood of person-to-person spread; stage three potential for global spread.

The authors used existing data to develop an environmental profile for each pathogen and combined this profile with existing maps showing locations of index cases and viral det…

Reviewing Author

Mary E. Wilson, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory BoardOneHealthTrust (formerly Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy); Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin

RoyaltiesUpToDate

Editorial BoardsJournal of Travel Medicine

Mary E. Wilson, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory BoardOneHealthTrust (formerly Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, and Policy); Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin

RoyaltiesUpToDate

Editorial BoardsJournal of Travel Medicine

Stratifying Regions in Africa by Potential to Generate Pandemics of Viral Hemorrhagic Fever

Topics

Reviewing Author