Severe Obesity in Childhood Predicts High Risk for Obesity in Adulthood

Simulation models predict that obese 2-year-olds have a 75% probability of obesity at age 35 years.

How childhood obesity translates into adult obesity is unknown. Using five U.S. national health data sets that include roughly 177,000 body-mass index (BMI) observations in 42,000 children (age 2–19 years) and adults, researchers developed models to predict risk of obesity at age 35 years. Severe obesity was defined as BMI ≥35 in adults and ≥120% of the 95th percentile for age in children.

Among the model's findings and predictions:

Based on current BMI levels, 57% of children will be obese at age 35 years.
The prevalence of obesity increased from age 2 to 19 years.
Among obese children, the probability of obesity at age 35 increased from 75% in 2-year-olds to 88% in 19-year-olds.
Among nonobese children, the probability of obesity at age 35 dec…

Reviewing Author

F. Bruder Stapleton, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory BoardCareer Physician

Editorial BoardsUpToDate

Leadership Positions in Professional SocietiesAmerican Society of Pediatric Nephrology Foundation (Chair)

F. Bruder Stapleton, MD

Disclosures

Consultant/Advisory BoardCareer Physician

Editorial BoardsUpToDate

Leadership Positions in Professional SocietiesAmerican Society of Pediatric Nephrology Foundation (Chair)

Severe Obesity in Childhood Predicts High Risk for Obesity in Adulthood

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Reviewing Author