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The proportion of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who have minimal symptoms is an important determinant of the pathogen's pandemic potential, as these infections are likely to go undiagnosed. Investigators used mathematical modeling to estimate the number of undocumented infections and their contribution to SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China.
Subjects were categorized into two groups: those with symptoms severe enough to elicit care-seeking and a documented COVID-19 diagnosis, and those with undocumented infections. The model also accounted for changes in human mobility between cities based on recent historic data adjusted for the escalating restrictions on such movement.
At the beginning of the epidemic, the estimated basic reproductive n…