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The curves of COVID-19 cases and COVID-19–related hospitalizations and deaths in various countries show a steep upward slope, followed by a plateau and then a fall by July 2020 (except in the U.S., where nationwide numbers still are rising). Thus, lockdowns, social distancing, masks, and related interventions bent the initial curve. But unarguably, the cost of these measures to the economy has been substantial. So how much benefit has resulted from these costly and unpopular pandemic containment measures compared with the alternative: allowing the pandemic to run its course?
A multinational team of social scientists modeled data on the effects of large-scale anticontagion policies in six countries. The team estimates that these measures alre…