A Population-Based Risk Prediction Model for Patients with COVID-19

The model was derived and validated in a population of more than 8 million individuals. A risk calculator is available online.

In the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, with “second waves” in many countries, there is an urgent need for precise disease-severity prediction tools. The recently introduced ISARIC 4C score estimates mortality risk from COVID-19 in patients admitted to hospital (NEJM JW Infect Dis Dec 2020 and BMJ 2020; 370:m3339). Now, researchers have presented a different population-based risk evaluation algorithm for hospital admission and death from COVID-19, using data from 10.5 million patients seen at 1205 practices in England contributing to the QResearch project.

Between January 24, 2020, and April 30, 2020, 75% of the practices (including approximately 6 million patients) were randomly assigned to the derivation cohort. Parameters in the model included …

Reviewing Author

Thomas Glück, MD

Disclosures

Editorial BoardsConsilium Infectiorum by InfectoPharm, Infection

Thomas Glück, MD

Disclosures

Editorial BoardsConsilium Infectiorum by InfectoPharm, Infection

A Population-Based Risk Prediction Model for Patients with COVID-19

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Reviewing Author