Older Cardiovascular Risk Calculators Might Greatly Overestimate Risk in Certain Populations

Formulas for cardiovascular (CV) risk calculations are based on population studies and generally include diabetes as a major risk factor. In recent years, increased screening has led to identification of diabetes earlier in its course. Do formulas that were derived when diabetes usually was diagnosed at later stages overestimate CV risk for people in whom diabetes is diagnosed early, when CV risk still is relatively low?

In New Zealand, a campaign launched in 2003 to assess CV risk (including diabetes status) in all middle-aged patients had reached 90% of eligible patients by 2016. About 46,000 patients who completed CV assessments and had type 2 diabetes and no known CV disease, heart failure, or substantial renal impairment were entered in…