Scoring System to Stratify 10-Year Risk for Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common sustained arrhythmia, is a leading cause of stroke and heart failure and substantially raises risk for death. To predict 10-year risk for AF, investigators constructed a scoring system using data from initial examinations and subsequent 10-year follow-up of 4764 participants in the Framingham Heart Study (age range, 45–95; no AF at baseline).

The system assigns points for age, body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, treatment of hypertension, prolonged PR interval, substantial cardiac murmur, and heart failure, all of which were determined by regression analysis to be independent predictors of AF. During the 10-year follow-up, 10% of participants developed AF; the scoring system stratifies 10-year …